New season, new poll

So, who's your pick?

Jimmie?

Carl?

Kyle?

One of the Big Three?

Or a surprise?

As of today, I like Kyle Busch.

Watch that wall there, Carl

Gory details are here.

HEAD TO HEAD

The champion hasn't been decided yet, but Team Lester is close. With 20 games to play, Lester has a five-game lead. The only thing leaving hope for the rest of the field is the schedule - it's backended with mostly 100-matchup races (five of the last seven), including this week's in Talladega. In addition to our defectors, photo finish and Longs Gap have been eliminated from championship contention.

Standings

Team Lester 61-17-0

Rubbins Racin 54-20-3

TURBO 55-20-3

No right turns 55-24-0

KLA Sadler 53-23-2

Rolling Thunder 52-25-1

yduck, speedracer 51-24-2

Rev-A-Lusions 51-26-3

BLOWINSMOKE 51-26-0

reckhard 51-27-0

Cooter 50-26-3

need4speed 50-28-0

FORDFUCUS 49-27-3

Sarges Squad 49-27-1

FC Newman 49-29-1

Barrie Lang 49-30-1

3WIDE, Vans Bums, Team Parski 49-30-0

testcar 48-39-2

Black Bear 48-30-0

CHK 48-32-0

AFTER BURNER 47-30-2

RacingAngel 46-30-2

nstag8rs 45-30-3

Gordon #1 45-33-1

RAZN 45-32-0

RoadRage 45-33-0

Dirt Runners 45-35-0

Smokin Aces, KitchenPass 44-33-1

Crash & Burn, RugRatRacers 44-34-1

AERO PUSH 44-35-0

hardbody, Team Wyoming 42-35-2

gonzo, 42-36-0

Chevys Redneck 40-33-5

photo finish 40-39-0

Longs Gap 36-40-2

Talladega schedule

Smokin Aces v. speedracer

Crash & Burn v. Team Wyoming
Chevys Redneck v. Rolling Thunder
Kntcky tied gordon hater
DWI tied Yabos
photo finish v. KLA Sadler
KitchenPass v. Team Parski
nstag8rs def Hendrick Express
KitchenPass v. nstag8rs
Rev-A-Lusions v. No right turns
BLOWINSMOKE v. Longs Gap
Dirt Runners def Junior
Sarges Squad v. reckhard
CHK v. hardbody
Beer Belly tied asian assassins
Barrie Lang def Canyon County
Rubbins Racin v. TURBO
3WIDE v. testcar
Black Bear v. RoadRage
Vans Bums v. RugRatRacers
yduck v. gonzo
Cooter v. Gordon #1
RacingAngel v. Team Lester
AERO PUSH v. FORDFUCUS
need4speed v. speedracer
AFTER BURNER v. Team Wyoming
Smokin Aces v. Rolling Thunder
Crash & Burn def gordon hater
Chevys Redneck def Yabos
KLA Sadler def Kntcky
Team Parski def DWI

photo finish def Hendrick Express

RAZN v. FC Newman

nstag8rs def DWI

RAZN v. Longs Gap

Rev-A-Lusions def Junior

BLOWINSMOKE v. reckhard

Dirt Runners v. hardbody
Sarges Squad def asian assassins
CHK def Canyon County
TURBO def Beer Belly
Barrie Lang v. testcar
Rubbins Racin v. RoadRage
3WIDE v. RugRatRacers
Black Bear v. gonzo
Vans Bums v. Gordon #1
yduck v. Team Lester
Cooter v. FORDFUCUS
RacingAngel v. speedracer
AERO PUSH v. Team Wyoming
need4speed v. Rolling Thunder
AFTER BURNER def gordon hater
Smokin Aces def Yabos
Crash & Burn v. KLA Sadler
Chevys Redneck v. Team Parski
Kntcky tied Hendrick Express
FC Newman v. No right turns
photo finish v. KitchenPass
Dirt Runners v. Rev-A-Lusions
BLOWINSMOKE v. FC Newman
Sarges Squad v. RAZN
CHK v. No right turns
Longs Gap def Beer Belly
Barrie Lang def Junior
Rubbins Racin v. reckhard
3WIDE v. hardbody

Black Bear def asian assassins

Vans Bums v. Canyon County

yduck v. TURBO

Cooter v. testcar

RacingAngel v. RoadRage
AERO PUSH v. RugRatRacers
need4speed v. gonzo
AFTER BURNER v. Gordon #1
Smokin Aces v. Team Lester
Crash & Burn v. FORDFUCUS
Chevys Redneck v. speedracer
Team Wyoming def Kntcky

Rolling Thunder def DWI

photo finish def gordon hater

KitchenPass def Yabos
nstag8rs v. KLA Sadler
Team Parski def Hendrick Express
FC Newman v. Rev-A-Lusions
BLOWINSMOKE v. RAZN
Dirt Runners v. No right turns
Sarges Squad v. Longs Gap
CHK def Junior
reckhard def Beer Belly
Barrie Lang v. hardbody
Rubbins Racin def asian assassins
3WIDE def Canyon County
Black Bear v. TURBO
Vans Bums v. testcar
yduck v. RoadRage
Cooter v. RugRatRacers
RacingAngel v. gonzo
AERO PUSH v. Gordon #1
need4speed v. Team Lester

AFTER BURNER v. FORDFUCUS

OVERALL
It's going to be tough for anyone to catch Van's Bums. If Van's place holds in the Head to Head, there's an outside shot if the team struggles in the Chase and also drops some in the Yahoo standings. Van's can finish no worse than fourth in the Single Elimination and second in the Double Elimination.

So who has the best shot? First calculating the current standings for Yahoo Overall and Second Half, and the Head to Head standings, we get a little bit of a look if we then plug in the worst possible finishes for Van's and the best possible finishes for everyone else. If Van's finishes fourth in the Single Elimination, second in the Double Elimination and 14th in the Chase (and somehow keeping its top-five spots in the two remaining Yahoo standings and 18th in the Head to Head), Van's would have an average finish of 6.83.

The best possible finishes for everyone else, if they keep their places in the two Yahoo standings and the Head to Head (i.e. first-place finishes in any remaining competitions):

Team Lester 4.63

TURBO 8.0
KLA Sadler 8.63

Barrie Lang 10.0

Cooter 10.3
Rev-A-Lusions 10.9
No right turns 11.9
Team Parski 12.0

Rubbins Racin 13.8

BLOWINSMOKE 14.1
Rolling Thunder 14.8
AFTER BURNER 15.8
yduck 16.3
testcar 18.4
RacingAngel 18.6
Longs Gap 19.1
So ... Team Lester has the best shot at catching Van's, considering Van's continues to post strong scores and Lester wins most of the remaining individual competition titles.

Everyone else still has a shot, but a couple things need to happen: Big, BIg, BIG scores from here on out and some untimely choices/wrecks for Van's.

Quick note for Rubbin's Racin: the team was eliminated in the first round of the Single Elimination (by 65 points over six races) and in the second round of the Double Elimination (by just 18 points over four races in the first round). Without those two finishes (scored at 50th and 33rd, respectively), Rubbin's would be challenging for the title. It's the only team besides Van's with top-10 finishes or current standings in each of our other competitions.

CHASE

I didn't expect a Chase participant to bail after Richmond, but with Yabos' departure, we could have at least one of the non-Chase qualifiers pass Yabos in the Chase standings. You'd think a 2,000-point cushion would be enough to prevent that. Sucks for Yabos.

SINGLE ELIMINATION

This is the last race of the semifinals. Rolling Thunder leads TURBO by 28 points and Rev-A-Lusions fronts Van's by 43. Winners advance to the championship; losers battle for third.

DOUBLE ELIMINATION

This is also the last race of Round Nine, the final Losers' Bracket matchup and essentially the third-place matchup. testcar, which was seeded first in the 50-team bracket based on past Yahoo! Fantasy NASCAR finishes since 1999, leads Longs Gap by 1 (ONE!!!) point. The winner advances to the Championship against undefeated Van's. The testcar-Longs winner would need to defeat Van's over races 31-33 to force a winner-take-all shootout in races 34-36. If Van's wins over races 31-33, it wins.

WORLD CUP

After one race in the four-race semifinals, Team Lester leads Cooter by 10 points and Barrie Lang holds a 30-point lead over RacingAngel.

Rivalry born

More trouble for Kahne and Junior kept several scores down, and I couldn't find anyone who had Edwards and KyBusch - that would have blown away the field this week. The details are here.

A fishing trip prevented me from updating the Head to Head standings and schedule, so please accept my apologies (new standings and a Fontana schedule are below).

OVERALL

Short of a momumental collapse in the Yahoo overall, Yahoo second half, Chase and Head-to-Head competitions, Van's Bums likely wrapped up the overall title at Bristol. Van's clipped Barrie Lang by 22 to advance to the semifinals in the Single Elimination, drove past testcar for a spot in the Double Elimination championship, and cruised past KLA Sadler to advance to the quarterfinals in the World Cup.

BRISTOL

The RMN average for the short track was a low 207, the lowest since June's race at New Hampshire and not helped by at least six teams not paying attention to their lineups. Just three teams scored 300 or more points.

CHASE

Our cutoff is 6,309 points, leaving 13 teams in the field after Bristol; another five are within 100 points of the cutoff with two races to go.

SINGLE ELIMINATION

In addition to Van's, TURBO, Rev-A-Lusions and Rolling Thunder advance to the semifinals. Van's matchup was the closest, followed by TURBO's 105-point win over reckhard. The semi matchups (which run from races 25-30, Fontana-Talladega): TURBO v. Rolling Thunder, Rev-A0Lusions v. Van's.

DOUBLE ELIMINATION

Van's 99-point win over testcar was the largest margin and it was the only matchup in the winners' bracket. RacingAngel eliminated Team Lester (by 34 points), Yabos knocked out Team Parski (9 points) and Longs Gap nipped AFTER BURNER (1 point). Four teams remain in the losers' bracket, and the last one standing will face Van's for the title. Round Eight is just three races, Fontana through New Hampshire.

WORLD CUP

Cooter, Team Lester, Sarge's, Rubbins', Barrie Lang, Team Parski and RacingAngel joined Van's in the quarterfinals. Parski posted a 5-point victory over TURBO in the closest matchup. The quarters cover four races, Fontana through Dover.

HEAD to HEAD

Each team has 36 games remaining, including a string of 4-game weekends at Richmond, Talladega, Atlanta, Texas, Phoenix and Miami. Team Lester leads speedracer by a little more than one game and Rubbins and TURBO by almost three. For those wondering: Van's is tied for 14th, nine games behind Lester.

Note to 2009 RMN players: I will be able to adjust past scores for vacant players and adjust the standings accordingly; this year, it's just not possible with a clumsy program. So, if we have the same issue of six teams going AWOL midway through the season, for 2009 RMN I will be able to adjust those scores to 0 for the races earlier in the season and give us a better representation of the standings. We're stuck with what we got this year; my apologies again.

Head to Head - through Bristol:

1. 44-18-0: Team Lester

42-18-2: speedracer

40-19-3: Rubbins Racin, TURBO

40-22-0: Yabos

39-23-1: reckhard

38-23-1: KLA Sadler

38-24-0: Rolling Thunder

36-26-0: BLOWINSMOKE

10. 36-25-1: Sarges Squad

36-26-0: Black Bear

35-26-1: FC Newman

34-26-2: yduck

35-27-0: Vans Bums, No right turns

34-28-0: Team Parski

33-27-2: nstag8rs, Cooter

32-37-3: Rev-A-Lusions

20. 32-29-1: testcar

32-30-0: need4speed, Barrie Lang, CHK (formerly known as Craker)

31-31-0: gonzo

29-29-4: FORDFUCUS

30-30-2: RacingAngel, Crash & Burn, AFTER BURNER

30-32-0: 3WIDE, RoadRage

31. 29-32-1: KitchenPass, Gordon #1

29-33-0: RAZN, AERO PUSH

28-34-0: asian assassins

27-34-1: Smokin Aces

27-35-0: Beer Belly, photo finish

26-33-3: gordon hater

40. 25-32-5: Chevys Redneck

26-34-2: Team Wyoming

24-36-2: Longs Gap, hardbody

24-37-1: RugRatRacers
24-38-0: Dirt Runners
23-38-1: Kntcky

21-41-0: Hendrick Express

19-43-0: Canyon County

15-47-0: Junior

11-51-0: DWI

Head to Head: Fontana schedule

Team Parski v. Rev-A-Lusions

AERO PUSH v. Cooter
need4speed v. yduck
AFTER BURNER v. Vans Bums
Smokin Aces v. Black Bear
Crash & Burn v. 3WIDE
Chevys Redneck v. Rubbins Racin
Kntcky v. Barrie Lang
DWI v. Beer Belly
photo finish v. CHK

KitchenPass v. Sarges Squad

nstag8rs v. Dirt Runners

Hendrick Express v. BLOWINSMOKE

RacingAngel v. FC Newman
KLA Sadler v. RAZN
Yabos v. No right turns
gordon hater v. Longs Gap
Rolling Thunder v. Junior
Team Wyoming v. reckhard
speedracer v. hardbody
FORDFUCUS v. asian assassins
Team Lester v. Canyon County
Gordon #1 v. TURBO
gonzo v. testcar
RugRatRacers v. RoadRage
nstag8rs v. Rev-A-Lusions
RacingAngel v. yduck
AERO PUSH v. Vans Bums
need4speed v. Black Bear
AFTER BURNER v. 3WIDE
Smokin Aces v. Rubbins Racin
Crash & Burn v. Barrie Lang
Chevys Redneck v. Beer Belly
Kntcky v. CHK

DWI v. Sarges Squad

photo finish v. Dirt Runners

KitchenPass v. BLOWINSMOKE

FC Newman v. Cooter

Hendrick Express v. RAZN

Team Parski v. No right turns
KLA Sadler v. Longs Gap
Yabos v. Junior
gordon hater v. reckhard
Rolling Thunder v. hardbody
Team Wyoming v. asian assassins
speedracer v. Canyon County
FORDFUCUS v. TURBO
Team Lester v. testcar
Gordon #1 v. RoadRage
gonzo v. RugRatRacers