Sunday, September 28, 2008

Watch that wall there, Carl

Gory details are here.

HEAD TO HEAD
The champion hasn't been decided yet, but Team Lester is close. With 20 games to play, Lester has a five-game lead. The only thing leaving hope for the rest of the field is the schedule - it's backended with mostly 100-matchup races (five of the last seven), including this week's in Talladega. In addition to our defectors, photo finish and Longs Gap have been eliminated from championship contention.
Standings
Team Lester 61-17-0
Rubbins Racin 54-20-3
TURBO 55-20-3
No right turns 55-24-0
KLA Sadler 53-23-2
Rolling Thunder 52-25-1
yduck, speedracer 51-24-2
Rev-A-Lusions 51-26-3
BLOWINSMOKE 51-26-0
reckhard 51-27-0
Cooter 50-26-3
need4speed 50-28-0
FORDFUCUS 49-27-3
Sarges Squad 49-27-1
FC Newman 49-29-1
Barrie Lang 49-30-1
3WIDE, Vans Bums, Team Parski 49-30-0
testcar 48-39-2
Black Bear 48-30-0
CHK 48-32-0
AFTER BURNER 47-30-2
RacingAngel 46-30-2
nstag8rs 45-30-3
Gordon #1 45-33-1
RAZN 45-32-0
RoadRage 45-33-0
Dirt Runners 45-35-0
Smokin Aces, KitchenPass 44-33-1
Crash & Burn, RugRatRacers 44-34-1
AERO PUSH 44-35-0
hardbody, Team Wyoming 42-35-2
gonzo, 42-36-0
Chevys Redneck 40-33-5
photo finish 40-39-0
Longs Gap 36-40-2
Talladega schedule
Smokin Aces v. speedracer
Crash & Burn v. Team Wyoming
Chevys Redneck v. Rolling Thunder
Kntcky tied gordon hater
DWI tied Yabos
photo finish v. KLA Sadler
KitchenPass v. Team Parski
nstag8rs def Hendrick Express
KitchenPass v. nstag8rs
Rev-A-Lusions v. No right turns
BLOWINSMOKE v. Longs Gap
Dirt Runners def Junior
Sarges Squad v. reckhard
CHK v. hardbody
Beer Belly tied asian assassins
Barrie Lang def Canyon County
Rubbins Racin v. TURBO
3WIDE v. testcar
Black Bear v. RoadRage
Vans Bums v. RugRatRacers
yduck v. gonzo
Cooter v. Gordon #1
RacingAngel v. Team Lester
AERO PUSH v. FORDFUCUS
need4speed v. speedracer
AFTER BURNER v. Team Wyoming
Smokin Aces v. Rolling Thunder
Crash & Burn def gordon hater
Chevys Redneck def Yabos
KLA Sadler def Kntcky
Team Parski def DWI
photo finish def Hendrick Express
RAZN v. FC Newman
nstag8rs def DWI
RAZN v. Longs Gap
Rev-A-Lusions def Junior
BLOWINSMOKE v. reckhard
Dirt Runners v. hardbody
Sarges Squad def asian assassins
CHK def Canyon County
TURBO def Beer Belly
Barrie Lang v. testcar
Rubbins Racin v. RoadRage
3WIDE v. RugRatRacers
Black Bear v. gonzo
Vans Bums v. Gordon #1
yduck v. Team Lester
Cooter v. FORDFUCUS
RacingAngel v. speedracer
AERO PUSH v. Team Wyoming
need4speed v. Rolling Thunder
AFTER BURNER def gordon hater
Smokin Aces def Yabos
Crash & Burn v. KLA Sadler
Chevys Redneck v. Team Parski
Kntcky tied Hendrick Express
FC Newman v. No right turns
photo finish v. KitchenPass
Dirt Runners v. Rev-A-Lusions
BLOWINSMOKE v. FC Newman
Sarges Squad v. RAZN
CHK v. No right turns
Longs Gap def Beer Belly
Barrie Lang def Junior
Rubbins Racin v. reckhard
3WIDE v. hardbody
Black Bear def asian assassins
Vans Bums v. Canyon County
yduck v. TURBO
Cooter v. testcar
RacingAngel v. RoadRage
AERO PUSH v. RugRatRacers
need4speed v. gonzo
AFTER BURNER v. Gordon #1
Smokin Aces v. Team Lester
Crash & Burn v. FORDFUCUS
Chevys Redneck v. speedracer
Team Wyoming def Kntcky
Rolling Thunder def DWI
photo finish def gordon hater
KitchenPass def Yabos
nstag8rs v. KLA Sadler
Team Parski def Hendrick Express
FC Newman v. Rev-A-Lusions
BLOWINSMOKE v. RAZN
Dirt Runners v. No right turns
Sarges Squad v. Longs Gap
CHK def Junior
reckhard def Beer Belly
Barrie Lang v. hardbody
Rubbins Racin def asian assassins
3WIDE def Canyon County
Black Bear v. TURBO
Vans Bums v. testcar
yduck v. RoadRage
Cooter v. RugRatRacers
RacingAngel v. gonzo
AERO PUSH v. Gordon #1
need4speed v. Team Lester
AFTER BURNER v. FORDFUCUS
OVERALL
It's going to be tough for anyone to catch Van's Bums. If Van's place holds in the Head to Head, there's an outside shot if the team struggles in the Chase and also drops some in the Yahoo standings. Van's can finish no worse than fourth in the Single Elimination and second in the Double Elimination.
So who has the best shot? First calculating the current standings for Yahoo Overall and Second Half, and the Head to Head standings, we get a little bit of a look if we then plug in the worst possible finishes for Van's and the best possible finishes for everyone else. If Van's finishes fourth in the Single Elimination, second in the Double Elimination and 14th in the Chase (and somehow keeping its top-five spots in the two remaining Yahoo standings and 18th in the Head to Head), Van's would have an average finish of 6.83.
The best possible finishes for everyone else, if they keep their places in the two Yahoo standings and the Head to Head (i.e. first-place finishes in any remaining competitions):
Team Lester 4.63
TURBO 8.0
KLA Sadler 8.63
Barrie Lang 10.0
Cooter 10.3
Rev-A-Lusions 10.9
No right turns 11.9
Team Parski 12.0
Rubbins Racin 13.8
BLOWINSMOKE 14.1
Rolling Thunder 14.8
AFTER BURNER 15.8
yduck 16.3
testcar 18.4
RacingAngel 18.6
Longs Gap 19.1
So ... Team Lester has the best shot at catching Van's, considering Van's continues to post strong scores and Lester wins most of the remaining individual competition titles.
Everyone else still has a shot, but a couple things need to happen: Big, BIg, BIG scores from here on out and some untimely choices/wrecks for Van's.
Quick note for Rubbin's Racin: the team was eliminated in the first round of the Single Elimination (by 65 points over six races) and in the second round of the Double Elimination (by just 18 points over four races in the first round). Without those two finishes (scored at 50th and 33rd, respectively), Rubbin's would be challenging for the title. It's the only team besides Van's with top-10 finishes or current standings in each of our other competitions.
CHASE
I didn't expect a Chase participant to bail after Richmond, but with Yabos' departure, we could have at least one of the non-Chase qualifiers pass Yabos in the Chase standings. You'd think a 2,000-point cushion would be enough to prevent that. Sucks for Yabos.

SINGLE ELIMINATION
This is the last race of the semifinals. Rolling Thunder leads TURBO by 28 points and Rev-A-Lusions fronts Van's by 43. Winners advance to the championship; losers battle for third.
DOUBLE ELIMINATION
This is also the last race of Round Nine, the final Losers' Bracket matchup and essentially the third-place matchup. testcar, which was seeded first in the 50-team bracket based on past Yahoo! Fantasy NASCAR finishes since 1999, leads Longs Gap by 1 (ONE!!!) point. The winner advances to the Championship against undefeated Van's. The testcar-Longs winner would need to defeat Van's over races 31-33 to force a winner-take-all shootout in races 34-36. If Van's wins over races 31-33, it wins.
WORLD CUP
After one race in the four-race semifinals, Team Lester leads Cooter by 10 points and Barrie Lang holds a 30-point lead over RacingAngel.

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